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Created with Fabric.js 1.4.5 '"We are making an additional investment because wedo not want to admit failure." This is an instance of thesunk-cost fallacy" Reduce Errors 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Ireland UK US 3 1 Conclusion Quality of Life Total Rewards CompanyPractices Effective Decision-Making for leaders by Ronan Kennedy "We think, each of us, that we're much more rational than we are. And we think that we make our decisions because we have good reasons to make them. Even when it's the other way around. We believe in the reasons, because we've already made the decision." - Daniel Kahneman Why is this important? IncreaseEffectiveness IncreaseEfficiency Get to the heart of the issue '5 whys' - Sakichi Toyoda ToyotaFounder Problem: Your client is refusing to pay for the leaflets you printed for them.Why? The delivery was late, so the leaflets couldn't be used.Why? The job took longer than we anticipated.Why? We ran out of printer ink.Why? The ink was all used up on a big, last-minute order.Why? We didn't have enough in stock, and we couldn't order it in quickly enough.Counter-measure: We need to find a supplier who can deliver ink at very short notice. Source: Acknowledge sources of uncertainty Complex Information MissingInformation Unreliable Information Ambiguous/Conflicting information Models of Decision-Making Source: 'Sources of Power' Interesting Example Plus Write down the negative points and give them a numerical score (-x) Write down all the other points and give them a numerical score (+x or -x) Write down the positive points and give them a numerical score (+x) Minus Add up your score at the end to get your result. Result Six Thinking Hats Emotions Facts Caution Alternatives Positives Process - Everyone starts by assuming one of the hats.When speaking as the red hat, you canonly speak about your emotions regarding the topic.- When speaking with the white hat, you can onlyspeak about the facts and so on.- Everyone uses particular hat at the same time.- Then, everyone changes to the next hat.- No one ever uses only one hat. Edward de Bono Pattern Matching "Pattern matching (intuition) refers to the ability of the expert todetect typicality and to notice events that did not happen and other anomalies that violate the pattern." Mental Simulation "Mental simulation covers the ability to see events thathappened previously and events that are likely to happenagain in the future." 4 Stage Model 1. Define the problem Gary Klein 2. Generate a course of action 3. Evaluate the course of action 4. Carry out the course of action Choice Architecture Avoid Common Traps Fatigue 'His ego was depleted after a long day of meetings. So he just turned to standard operating procedures instead of thinking through the problem.' NeedSleep Availability Heuristic 'Searching for information that is available that confirmswhat you thought. You would be more beneficial if youtried to disprove or disconfirm your theory.' Sunk Cost Fallacy Source: Daniel Kahneman 'Thinking Fast and Slow' Source: Source: Source: Edward de Bono What You See Is All There Is 'I know this report is absolutely damning and it maybe based on solid evidence, but how sure our weWe must allow for that uncertainty in our thinking.' Cognitive Ease 'Let's not dismiss their business plan just because thefont makes it hard to read.' Difficult Stuff The Halo Effect 'The tendency for an impression created in one area toinfluence opinion in another area. "She know nothingabout this person's management skills. All is going byis the halo effect from a good presentation."' Experts vs Predictability 'The question is not whether these experts are welltrained. It is whether their world is predictable.' Substitution 'The question we face is whether this candidate cansucceed. The question we seem to answer is whethershe interviews well. Let's not substitute.' Weak Evidence 'They keep making the same mistake: predicting rareevents from weak evidence. When the evidences is weak,one should stick to base rates.' Evidence ? The Law of Small Numbers 'The sample of observation is too small to make anyinferences. Let's not follow the law of small numbers.' Representitiveness 'The lawn is well trimmed, the receptionist looks competent,and the furniture is attractive, but this doesn't mean it is awell-managed company.' Source: Daniel Kahneman, 'Thinking Fast and Slow' Use a Pre-Mortem Strategy Crystal Ball - Describe a situation in which your team feels high confidence.- Pretend to peer into a crystal ball and inform them that their explanation of the situation was wrong. The crystal ball does not explain why.- The team has to come up with another reason why it was wrong. Source: Cohen, Freeman, and Thompson
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